In estimating the expected return for entrepreneurship, why do you use average salary but median time to exit?
I think most people can modify the expected value calculations somewhat. For example, I think I’m capable enough to create a successful startup, but I find it highly unlikely that I have the necessary prowess to make a startup that ends up in the top 2%. If I eliminate the possibility that my startup will reach the top 2%, that cuts the expected value in half. (It’s still a lot higher than the expected value of almost any 9 to 5 job, though.)
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