Welcome! This web app will help train you to make more accurate, better-calibrated predictions.
This web app was created by the Open Philanthropy Project in conjunction with ClearerThinking.org.
Note that you must sign in with a GuidedTrack, Facebook, or Google account, so that the application can track your performance over time.
Calibrate Your Judgment
For each question, you'll be prompted to say what you think the answer is and how confident you are in that answer. You should try to give the right answer whenever you can, but your main goal is to be accurate about how confident you are in each answer.
In other words, your goal is to be "well-calibrated," which means that when you say you're 50% confident, you're right about 50% of the time, and when you say you're 80% confident, you're right about 80% of the time, and so on.
Nobody is perfectly calibrated, but some people are much better calibrated than others, and a variety of studies suggest you can improve your calibration with the sort of practice this app provides.