UPDATE: Please also see our COVID-19 landing page for many more up-to-date articles about the pandemic.

Two 80,000 Hours researchers, Robert Wiblin and Howie Lempel, just recorded a discussion about the 2019-nCoV virus.

You can get it by subscribing to the 80,000 Hours Podcast wherever you listen to podcasts. Learn more about the show.

In the 1h15m conversation we cover:

• What is it?
• How many people have it?
• How contagious is it?
• What fraction of people who contract it die?
• How likely is it to spread out of control?
• What’s the range of plausible fatalities worldwide?
• How does it compare to other epidemics?
• What don’t we know and why?
• What actions should listeners take, if any?
• How should the complexities of the above be communicated by public health professionals?

Below are some links we discuss in the episode, or otherwise think are informative:

Advice on how to avoid catching contagious diseases

• The Wuhan Virus: How to Stay Safe by Laurie Garrett

Forecasts

• Metaculus aggregated predictions regarding nCoV

General summaries of what’s going on

• 2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak on Wikipedia
• Rob’s summary of the evidence from 1st February (now out of date)
• CoronaVirus – FAQ, misconceptions, information, from a statistical perspective by Anon
• Clarity, Please, on the Coronavirus Statistics by Maimuna Majumder
• What Is the Coronavirus? Symptoms, Treatment and Risks by Roni Caryn Rabin

Our previous episodes about pandemic control

• Howie Lempel on pandemics that kill hundreds of millions and how to stop them
• Dr Beth Cameron works to stop you dying in a pandemic. Here’s what keeps her up at night.
• Tom Inglesby on how to prevent global catastrophic biological risks

Thoughts on how to communicate risk to the public

• Adjustment Reactions: The Teachable Moment in Crisis Communication by Peter M. Sandman
• “No Reason for Alarm” Is a Foolishly Over-Reassuring Message about the Novel Coronavirus Spreading from Wuhan by Peter Sandman

Official updates

• Our experts are closely following and analyzing updates on this 2019-nCoV outbreak by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
• WHO nCoV situation reports

Published papers

• Update January 31: Modeling the Spreading Risk of 2019-nCoV by Lauren Gardner
• Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study by Wu et al.
• Mining coronavirus genomes for clues to the outbreak’s origins by Jon Cohen
• Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study by Chen et al.
• Jan 24th: A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern by Wang et al.
• 2019-20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak: Intense surveillance is vital for preventing sustained transmission in new locations

General advice on disaster preparedness

• Prepare a household disaster kit

Tweets mentioned

• Tweet by Helen Branswell
• Unconfirmed tweet on diagnostic bottlenecks
• Graph of growth in case figures from Jan 31st.
• Growth of nCoV cases outside of China