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Preventing an AI-related catastrophe
Catastrophic pandemics
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Great power war
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Our list of top high-impact career paths
AI governance and policy
AI safety technical research
Biorisk research, strategy, and policy
Information security in high-impact areas
Expert in AI hardware
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Helping build the effective altruism community
Nuclear weapons safety and security
Operations in high-impact organisations
Research into global priorities
More promising paths
Be a founder
Software engineering
Journalism
See more →
How to build great career capital
See our top recommendations →
See all career reviews →
Read the full series →
Introduction
Your most important decision
Foundations
A definition of impact
Longtermism
Harmful jobs
Global priorities
Problem selection
Existential risks
Top problems list
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How to think about your contribution
Effective solutions
List of high-impact careers
Personal fit
Gut instinct
Differences in productivity
Comparative advantage
Strategy
Ambition
Coordination
Exploration
Impact and satisfaction
Accidental harm
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Misconceptions about effective altruism
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Topic archive: Reasoning well

Subtopics in "Reasoning well":

Decision making (41)
Epistemics (5)
Forecasting (6)

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All content tagged "Reasoning well"

2024

September

#200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks
Podcast

June

#190 – Eric Schwitzgebel on whether the US is conscious
Podcast

May

#188 – Matt Clancy on whether science is good
Podcast

April

#184 – Zvi Mowshowitz on sleeping on sleeper agents, and the biggest AI updates since ChatGPT
Podcast

March

#183 – Spencer Greenberg on causation without correlation, money and happiness, lightgassing, hype vs value, and more
Podcast

February

#180 – Hugo Mercier on why gullibility and misinformation are overrated
Podcast

2023

October

#165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe
Podcast

September

#163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do
Podcast

August

#161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite
Podcast

May

Advanced series: our most important and novel research on what makes for a high-impact career (First published)
Article
#152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion
Podcast
Career planning and decision making — all our best resources (Updated)
Article
Part 9: All the evidence-based advice we found on how to be more successful in any job (Updated)
Career guide
Part 4: Want to do good? Here’s how to choose an area to focus on. (Updated)
Career guide
Part 2: Can one person make a difference? What the evidence says. (Updated)
Career guide
Part 8: How to find the right career for you (Updated)
Career guide

April

Expected value: how can we make a difference when we’re uncertain what’s true? (Updated)
Article

March

What is social impact? A definition (Updated)
Article
Improving decision making (especially in important institutions) (Updated)
Problem profile
Is it ever OK to take a harmful job in order to do more good? An in-depth analysis (Updated)
Article

February

The best solutions are far more effective than others (Updated)
Article

2022

August

#136 – Will MacAskill on what we owe the future
Podcast

June

Know what you’re optimising for
Blog post

May

Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine
Podcast (80k After Hours)
#130 – Will MacAskill on balancing frugality with ambition, whether you need longtermism, & mental health under pressure
Podcast

April

#128 – Chris Blattman on the five reasons wars happen
Podcast

March

Get our guide to what makes for a high-impact career
Article
Michelle and Habiba on what they’d tell their younger selves, and the impact of the 1-1 team
Podcast (80k After Hours)

2021

October

Forecasting and related research and implementation
Career review
What is social impact? A definition (First published)
Article

September

Moral uncertainty: how to act when you’re uncertain about what’s good
Article
Cluelessness: can we know the effects of our actions?
Article
Counterfactuals and how they change our view of what does good
Article
Expected value: how can we make a difference when we’re uncertain what’s true? (First published)
Article
Why some of your career options probably have 100x the impact of others
Article
How to compare global problems for yourself
Article
The best solutions are far more effective than others (First published)
Article

August

How are resources in effective altruism allocated across issues?
Blog post

July

#106 – Cal Newport on an industrial revolution for office work
Podcast
This is your most important decision
Article

May

#101 – Robert Wright on using cognitive empathy to save the world
Podcast
How to investigate your career uncertainties and make a judgement call
Article
How to figure out your next career step
Article
Clarifying your strategic focus
Article
Which global problems do you think are most pressing?
Article
8-week career planning course: career planning template
Article
Planning a high-impact career: a summary of everything you need to know in 7 points
Article
#98 – Christian Tarsney on future bias and a possible solution to moral fanaticism
Podcast

March

Advanced series: our most important and novel research on what makes for a high-impact career (Updated)
Article
Your biggest opportunity to make a difference: our guide to what makes for a high-impact career
Article

January

#90 – Ajeya Cotra on worldview diversification and how big the future could be
Podcast

2020

December

Career planning and decision making — all our best resources (First published)
Article
#89 – Owen Cotton-Barratt on epistemic systems & layers of defense against potential global catastrophes
Podcast

November

#87 – Russ Roberts on whether it's more effective to help strangers, or people you know
Podcast

September

Notes on good judgement and how to develop it
Blog post

July

#81 – Ben Garfinkel on scrutinising classic AI risk arguments
Podcast

May

#78 – Danny Hernandez on forecasting and measuring some of the most important drivers of AI progress
Podcast
#77 – Marc Lipsitch on whether we're winning or losing against COVID-19
Podcast
How to make tough career decisions (Updated)
Article

April

Essential Facts and Figures – COVID-19
Article
Good news about COVID-19
Blog post

March

#73 – Phil Trammell on patient philanthropy and waiting to do good
Podcast

2019

October

How useful are longer-term career plans?
Article
A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact (Updated)
Article

August

How replaceable are the top candidates in large hiring rounds? Why the answer flips depending on the distribution of applicant ability
Blog post

June

#60 – Prof Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better
Podcast

February

#52 – Glen Weyl on uprooting capitalism and democracy for a just society
Podcast

2018

December

#49 – Rachel Glennerster on a year's worth of education for under $1 and other development best buys
Podcast

November

#48 – Brian Christian on better living through the wisdom of computer science
Podcast
Think twice before talking about ‘talent gaps’ — clarifying nine misconceptions
Blog post

October

#46 – Hilary Greaves on moral cluelessness, population ethics, & harnessing the brainpower of academia to tackle the most important research questions
Podcast

August

Randomised experiment: If you’re genuinely unsure whether to quit your job or break up, then you probably should
Blog post
Should you play to your comparative advantage when choosing your career?
Article
#39 – Spencer Greenberg on the scientific approach to solving difficult everyday questions.
Podcast

May

#30 – Eva Vivalt on how little social science findings generalize from one study to another
Podcast
#29 – Anders Sandberg on three new resolutions for the Fermi Paradox and how to easily colonise the universe
Podcast

March

#24 – Stefan Schubert on why it's a bad idea to break the rules, even if it's for a good cause
Podcast

2017

November

#15 – Phil Tetlock on how chimps beat Berkeley undergrads and when it's wise to defer to the wise
Podcast

October

#11 – Spencer Greenberg on speeding up social science 10-fold & why plenty of startups cause harm
Podcast

September

Improving decision making (especially in important institutions) (First published)
Problem profile
#7 – Julia Galef on making humanity more rational, what EA does wrong, and why Twitter isn't all bad
Podcast

August

Is it fair to say that most social programmes don’t work? (Updated)
Article

July

Is it fair to say that most social programmes don’t work? (First published)
Article

June

Is it ever OK to take a harmful job in order to do more good? An in-depth analysis (First published)
Article
#2 – David Spiegelhalter on risk, stats and improving understanding of science
Podcast

May

Most people report believing it’s incredibly cheap to save lives in the developing world
Blog post

April

Part 9: All the evidence-based advice we found on how to be more successful in any job (First published)
Career guide
How accurately does anyone know the global distribution of income?
Blog post
4 biases to avoid in career decisions (Updated)
Article

January

5 reasons not to go into education
Blog post

2016

April

A framework for comparing global problems in terms of expected impact (First published)
Article
Part 4: Want to do good? Here’s how to choose an area to focus on. (First published)
Career guide
Part 2: Can one person make a difference? What the evidence says. (First published)
Career guide

March

Everything you need to know about whether money makes you happy
Article

February

The value of coordination
Blog post

January

Just how bad is being a CEO in big tobacco?
Blog post

2015

November

Why you should focus more on talent gaps, not funding gaps
Blog post

October

Common investing mistakes in the effective altruism community
Blog post

August

How to make tough career decisions (First published)
Article
How can doctors do the most good? An interview with Dr Gregory Lewis
Blog post

July

If you want to save lives, should you study medicine? Probably not.
Blog post
Disagreeing about what’s effective isn’t disagreeing with effective altruism
Blog post

February

We change more than we expect
Blog post

January

The social impact of different professions
Blog post

2014

December

Stop worrying so much about the long-term
Blog post
Some causes are better than others (First published)
Article

November

Some causes are better than others (Updated)
Article
The difference between true and tangible impact
Article

October

4 biases to avoid in career decisions (First published)
Article
Framework worksheet (Updated)
Article

September

Framework worksheet (First published)
Article
Yardsticks: how to compare the scale of different social problems (Updated)
Article

August

Yardsticks: how to compare the scale of different social problems (First published)
Article
A checklist for making rational career decisions
Article
Part 8: How to find the right career for you (First published)
Career guide

2013

December

A framework for strategically selecting a cause
Blog post
Why pick a cause?
Blog post

November

Interview with a Cambridge Professor of Medical Genetics on research careers
Blog post

October

Why I’m doing a PhD
Blog post

May

Biases: how they affect your career decisions, and what to do about them
Blog post

March

When to “go with your gut” in career choice
Blog post

February

Two questions you won’t want to ask yourself but should
Blog post

January

3 ways to broaden your career horizons
Blog post

2012

December

How to judge your chances of success
Blog post
Want to be successful? Know your odds.
Blog post

November

Do you think you’re better than average?
Blog post
Why don’t people help others more? – part 2
Blog post
A formula for the perfect job?
Blog post
Should we stop interviewing people?
Blog post

October

Sunk Costs in Careers
Blog post
Good generals let their soldiers die in vain
Blog post

September

How many lives does a doctor save? – Part 3 – Replacement
Blog post
How many lives does a doctor save? – Part 2 – Diminishing marginal returns
Blog post
Quantification – Part 1 – An Introduction
Blog post
How good are the best?
Blog post

August

How many lives does a doctor save?
Blog post
Social interventions gone wrong
Blog post

April

The haste consideration
Blog post

2011

November

It is Effectiveness, not Overhead that Matters
Blog post
Estimation is the best we have
Blog post

Filter by content type:
All122
Blog posts45
Podcasts36
Key articles33
Career guide pages4
Podcasts (80k After Hours)2
Problem profiles1
Career reviews1

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