In a nutshell: China will play an especially influential role in how many of the biggest challenges of the next century play out, including global catastrophic biological risks and — especially — developing emerging technologies like AI. But a lack of understanding and coordination between China and the West means we might not tackle those challenges as well as we can (and need to). Therefore, it will be very valuable to have more people specialising in the intersection of China and catastrophic risks and emerging technologies.

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Last summer, China unveiled a plan to become the world leader in artificial intelligence, aiming to create a $150 billion industry by 2030.

“We must take initiative to firmly grasp this new stage of development for artificial intelligence and create a new competitive edge,” the country’s State Council said. The move symbolised the technological thrust of “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” promoted by President Xi Jinping.

And it’s not just AI. China is becoming increasingly important in the solution of other global problems prioritised by the effective altruism community, including biosecurity, factory farming, and nuclear security. But few in the community know much about the country, and coordination between Chinese and Western organisations seems like it could be improved a great deal.

This suggests that a high-impact career path could be to develop expertise in the intersection between China, effective altruism, and pressing global issues. Once you have this expertise, you can use it to carry out research into global priorities or AI strategy, work in governments setting relevant areas of China–West policy, advise Western groups on how to work together with their Chinese counterparts, and other projects that we’ll sketch below.

For this reason, we’ve added “China specialists” to our list of priority career paths. Although there’s still much we don’t understand about this area, we think it’s an option especially worth considering if you’re aligned with the effective altruism community, have an interest in China, and are relatively good at humanities compared to quantitative skills.

In the rest of this article, we explain why understanding China is valuable. Then, we suggest concrete career steps you could take along this path, both in the short and long term, whether you have a Chinese or Western background. We’ll also explain why we don’t think outreach in China is a good idea right now.

There are already several people going down this path, but we need a lot more expertise and connections. In the next few years, it seems useful for up to 10–20 people in the community to develop significant expertise across the relevant topics.

Speak with our team

If you’re already familiar with the effective altruism community and want to pursue this path, we’d like to speak with you.

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Why might becoming a China specialist be high impact?

China plays a crucial role in almost all of the major global problems we highlight. For instance:

  • China is the largest foreign investor in Africa — larger than the US — which highlights its importance in global development.1
  • China is the largest emitter of CO2 emissions, accounting for 30% of the total.2
  • The Chinese government is arguably more proactive in increasing energy efficiency than the US.3
  • China recently became the largest consumer of factory farmed meat.4

In the areas of global catastrophic risk and emerging technology, China has an even more central role. It’s one of the most important nuclear and military powers. As the largest trading partner of North Korea, China plays an especially important role in reducing the chance of conflict on the Korean peninsula, making it vital within nuclear security. As home to nearly 20% of the world’s population,5 it will play a central role in mitigating pandemics.

Meanwhile, China is increasingly a leader in developing new technologies. Beijing is widely seen as a serious competitor to Silicon Valley,6 and is the major source of non-US ‘unicorns.’7 After the US and UK, it’s probably the next most important country in developing and shaping transformative AI (the UK is only a contender because DeepMind happens to be headquartered in London).8

This all means it’s difficult to understand the scale and urgency of these problems without understanding the situation in China. What’s more, it’ll be difficult to solve any of these global problems without better coordination between Western groups and their Chinese equivalents.

At the same time, China is one of the least well-understood countries in the West. For instance, I (Ben) studied history for 13 years at school, but didn’t study a single module of Chinese history.

Interest in China has grown in the last decade (and my school added a module on Chinese history soon after I left), but it still lags well behind many other countries. For instance, in American colleges and universities, the number of students studying French is three times larger than those studying Chinese,9 while the starting level of cultural difference is larger. There is a similar degree of interest in Japanese, despite China’s population being 10 times larger.10

The situation seems to be the same within the ‘effective altruism‘ community — a global movement that we helped to start, which aims to use evidence and reason to search for the most effective ways to do good in the world.

Many key organisations in the effective altruism community want to better understand China to inform their work. For instance, Open Philanthropy has recently funded several organisations doing work in China (covered later), and representatives of many of the AI risk research organisations have attended conferences in China.

However, these organisations struggle to find people who combine an in-depth knowledge of effective altruism with knowledge of China’s culture and role in key global problems. They also struggle to find people connected to relevant Chinese experts. This suggests that people who want to coordinate with the community could play a valuable role by providing these kinds of expertise and connections.

Which topics are most important to understand within effective altruism in China?

At 80,000 Hours, we think the most pressing global issues often relate to global catastrophic risks and emerging technology — areas where the role of China is especially important.

There are some specific topics we’d like to see more people gain relevant expertise in:

  • AI safety and strategy
  • Biorisk
  • International coordination and foreign policy
  • Other global problems

These are all vital issues to understand in the US and UK as well, but the intersection of these issues with China is particularly neglected.

You can read about all these topics (and their relevance to China) in our article on gaining experience with an emerging power

There are a few more topics worth considering with China in particular.

Chinese culture

Working with Chinese organisations on any topic requires an awareness of Chinese culture, history, and current affairs, as well as good intuitions about how each side will react to different messages and proposals. This involves understanding issues like:

  • What are Chinese attitudes towards doing good and social impact?
  • If you wanted to make connections with Chinese people interested in working on major global challenges, what messages should you espouse, and what pitfalls might you face? How does professional networking function in China in general?
  • What are Chinese attitudes to philanthropy? Who are the most influential figures in philanthropy? Who might be amenable to a more evidence-based style of giving?

We expect that fully understanding these topics will require deep familiarity with Chinese values, worldviews, history, customs, and so on — noting, of course, that these also vary substantially across the country. This type of familiarity is generally best built by living in a place, rather than through research or a small number of conversations — this is one of several reasons that spending significant time in China is likely to be valuable.

We also need people with outstanding Chinese language skills (both written and spoken).

Knowledge of and connections with effective altruism

With everything listed above, we’re not only looking for people who understand these topics, but also people who combine this with an effective altruism approach to doing good. This means trying to help all people equally, trying to identify the most effective ways to help, aiming to have well-calibrated judgements, and justifying them with evidence and reason. We find these attitudes are quite rare, especially in foreign policy, which is often focused on national interest.

Similarly, it’s important for people to have connections and trust within the existing effective altruism community, so you can inform them about China and help coordinate their efforts. Even if you have a great deal of knowledge of China already, if you can’t speak the language of effective altruism, then it’s difficult for the organisations to use your assessments of Chinese issues).

With that in mind, the list below suggests some ways to do two things at once: develop expertise in relevant Chinese topics, while also getting more involved in the rest of the community.

How many people does the community need?

Our rough guess is that it would be useful for there to be at least 10 people in the effective altruism community with good knowledge in this area within the next few years — meaning they’ve spent at least three years studying the topics above and/or living in China.

We chose 10 because that would be enough for several people to cover each of the major areas listed (e.g. four within AI, two within biorisk, two within foreign relations, and one in another area).

Getting to this point probably requires a significantly wider network of people in the area, and for many more people to experiment with this path. So, it could be reasonable for 30+ people to seriously experiment with this path, and aim to build a network of over 100 people within the next two years.

Longer term, there will likely be a need for many more people with knowledge of China, as new organisations and projects get started and hire staff.

Why we don’t want to do ‘outreach’ in China

In the early days of 80,000 Hours, we made many mistakes doing outreach in the UK and US, which have been difficult to unwind.

For instance, even today many people think 80,000 Hours is primarily about earning to give, despite us saying many times we don’t think earning to give is typically the highest-impact option.

When we start talking about effective altruism in China, people often assume that this means we want to go and persuade people in China to become ‘effective altruists,’ and perhaps start donating to effective charities.

But we don’t see building a broad-based effective altruism community in China as a key priority — in fact, we see these efforts as likely unhelpful.

It’s risky

Any kind of broad-based outreach is risky because it’s hard to reverse. Once your message is out there, it tends to stick around for years, so if you get the message wrong, you’ve harmed years of future efforts. We call this the risk of ‘lock in.’ Lock in is partly caused because once there are websites and articles about you, they stick around. But it’s also because first impressions are difficult to shift.

China also presents more risks than most countries due to government censorship and the one-party system, which is often wary of non-governmental groups that try to bring about grassroots change. If an organisation is blacklisted, then that’s a nearly irreversible setback.

It’s easy to get wrong

It seems especially easy to promote an unhelpful message in China.

One reason for this is that Chinese culture is pretty different from the West, so the best way to discuss issues may well be different too. For example, Chinese writing is much more likely to involve historical references or quotes than Western writing. Rather than quote Peter Singer, one might consider quoting Mozi — arguably the earliest consequentialist philosopher in history, who in around 400 BCE wrote about the importance of ‘universal concern’ (兼愛) towards all people.

Existing English language materials are also unsuitable, because they focus on the wrong topics. For example, many materials in the West focus on the value of donating to charities in Africa, but internationally focused philanthropy is much rarer in China, and the Chinese government has prohibited foreign nonprofit organisations from fundraising in the country.11 Moreover, it’s not the key priority — what’s needed is a good understanding of China rather than funding.

We’ve also found significant problems in our attempts to translate Chinese materials so far. For instance, the direct translation of ‘effective altruism’ that was initially used (有效利他主义):

  1. Used a term for ‘altruism’ that implied a great deal of self-sacrifice.
  2. Sounds obviously foreign, which we expect would make it less appealing.
  3. Sounds like a political ideology, which may not be viewed positively by the government.

Likewise, one of the possible translations of ‘existential risk’ (生存危机) is very close to the name of a computer game (生化危机), so it doesn’t have the credibility one might want.

It over-simplifies effective altruism – both in China, and in the West

We don’t think mass outreach is the ideal way to promote effective altruism in the West either. This is because the ideas of effective altruism are complex, and the media tends to oversimplify them. We think it’s better to focus on in-person discussions, and use high-quality learning materials — such as books, academic or other in-depth articles, and podcasts — rather than short-form content designed for a broad audience. Read more.

Putting all of this together, if there is going to be a Chinese equivalent of effective altruism in the future, then the materials would need to be developed from scratch by people with a deep understanding of China. Acting quickly with existing materials is likely to lock in poor messaging, and spoil future efforts.

Rather than focus on outreach, our priority is to better understand and coordinate with China. We want to do this by making a small number of strong connections with experts in China. Instead of creating irreversible risks, this strategy better serves the short-term priorities around global catastrophic risks, where knowledge is the key bottleneck.

Examples of people pursuing this path

How can you start a career in this area?

If you want to gain expertise in the topics above and effective altruism, what are some good ways to start?

We commissioned an expert to do several weeks of research in Chinese careers. He combined this research process with his own educational experiences at Tsinghua University and University of Hong Kong, as well as projects with Open Philanthropy on farm animal welfare, Good Food Institute, Future of Humanity Institute, and Foundational Research Institute on topics related to China. He has also worked with J.P. Morgan in Hong Kong and an AI startup in Beijing. Based on this very preliminary work, we’ve made a list of options that seem especially promising.

Broadly, the aim is to get a useful combination of the following as quickly as possible:

  1. Knowledge of the intersection of China and an important global issue, such as the topics listed earlier.
  2. Knowledge of and connections with the effective altruism community.
  3. A general understanding of Chinese language and culture. This probably requires spending at least a year living in China. However, having a background in China — and possibly even just visiting — could exclude you from some Western government jobs.

Below is a list of specific career steps you can take to gain the above. Most people should pursue a combination depending on their existing expertise and personal fit.

We think it’s useful for both people who grew up in China and people who grew up in the West to pursue this path. It would be great to have more Chinese people involved in the effective altruism community, and for more existing community members to learn about China.

Many of the best career steps will be similar to those you might take in any emerging power:

You can read more about all of these options in our article on building experience with an emerging power.

Here are a few additional options.

Get involved in the effective altruism community

It’s important to understand and have connections with the effective altruism community in the West, especially the organisations that do work relevant to China.

If you’re new to the community, then the best way to start making connections is to attend an Effective Altruism Global conference. We list more ways to get involved here.

Beyond this, it would be ideal to spend time working or interning in one of the relevant organisations. See a list of organisations and a guide to getting jobs at them in our career review.

It might be possible to get funding for people with knowledge of China to do placements in Western organisations. For people especially focused on China, there is also a WeChat group for the Chinese-speaking community with around 100 members, and local meetups in Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Taipei.

Apply to top scholarships

We’re aware of two prestigious scholarships, in which you study China-relevant topics for one year at a top university, while being introduced to an influential network. These are extremely competitive, but worth considering if you have strong undergraduate qualifications and some kind of impressive extracurricular achievement.

The first is the Schwarzman Scholarship, which is based at Tsinghua University.

The second is the Yenching Scholarship, which is based at Peking University. Yenching offers more courses in humanities and seems to have a greater engagement with Chinese literature relative to Schwarzman.

These are open to both Chinese citizens and people of other nationalities. People from both backgrounds can benefit from gaining an influential network in China and studying Chinese international affairs.

Work in another policy or politics position in your home country, focused on Chinese-relevant policy

Besides think tank jobs, you can also take other early career policy positions — such as in government, political parties, or influencer roles like journalism — to establish your career. Then, over time you can specialise more and more in China-relevant issues.

For instance, you could work in a relevant government agency and specialise in China-related issues (e.g. see our list of agencies in the UK), you could advise a politician on technology or foreign policy, or you could work in technology or foreign affairs journalism.

This path has significant flexibility, since it would be easy to switch into other policy issues if you decide not to focus on China.

Learn Chinese in China

Although Chinese takes about four times longer to learn than most European languages for native English speakers,12 if you study effectively, it’s possible to get to conversational fluency in 6–18 months of full-time study.

Our guess is that if you want a career involving China, this is probably worth your time. Many people in China don’t speak any English, and although high school and college students are required to study English, many are only proficient in reading rather than speaking. Being able to speak Chinese makes it easier to make friends and demonstrates your interest in the country. So although translation apps are improving rapidly, we expect it’s still going to be worth it.

However, written Chinese, as you might use in business, seems to take at least several years of hard study, because there’s a significant difference between conversational and formal Chinese. This makes the question of whether or not it’s worthwhile much less obvious (though it might be required for certain options).

On a more personal note, I (Ben) studied Chinese in China and found it a great deal of fun. It’s entirely different to Western languages (with a refreshing lack of conjugation), and lets you start to access a vast and often unknown culture, which one-sixth of the world’s population participates in. People in China are also very welcoming and friendly to those who make an effort to use the language, which provides daily encouragement — not to mention the fun life of a foreign student and the amazing food!

How can you learn most effectively? Most classroom teaching is pretty inefficient compared to what’s possible. I managed to learn 2–3 times faster than what is typical by following these steps (and I’ve seen others do the same):

  • Live in China while you learn, and aim to speak Chinese 100% of the time. If possible, study full-time.
  • Focus on one-on-one conversation as much as possible, since then you’re deliberately practising the most relevant skill, and the most useful vocabulary. You can get a one-on-one tutor for around $10 per hour.
  • Learn vocabulary with a spaced-repetition app like Memrise or Anki, where you focus on the most commonly used words, and the words that you find yourself most often using, rather than what you’ll find in common syllabi.

It’s easiest to start in a university language course, perhaps ideally in a prestigious university, such as Peking University. Alternatively, you could go to a place that specialises in teaching foreigners, such as the Beijing Language and Culture University.

These typically involve three hours of classes per day in the morning, with the afternoon free for learning vocabulary, homework, one-on-one lessons, and conversations with Chinese friends or other students. I did this for three months in Beijing and Dalian, and found it really fun. After you settle in, you could switch to 100% one-on-one practice, which is more efficient.

These courses typically cost about $300–500 per month, depending on the intensity and duration of the program,13 plus in Beijing or Shanghai you might need $1,200 per month for living expenses. If you’re willing to live in a less glamorous city such as Xian, Chongqing, or Wuhan, then your costs could be about halved.14 If you’re still at university, it’s often possible to do a semester abroad as part of your programme.

Alternatively, you can also consider intensive language programmes offered by places such as CET, IUP, Middlebury, and ACC — these are generally seen as the industry leaders. They are more expensive, and don’t give you the brand recognition that a university does, but you can generally learn faster, due to smaller classes and required language pledges (you promise to speak only the language you’re studying for the duration of the programme).

Some particularly good resources on language learning include:

Build a network in China

Many jobs offer you some opportunity to build connections in China as part of your regular job. For instance, you could volunteer to work on Chinese-relevant projects, or attend Chinese-focused conferences. If you’re an academic, you could collaborate with Chinese researchers.

Some past examples include:

  • World Intelligence Congress, the first international AI convention in China, which aimed to encourage international cooperation among global experts in the field. It was hosted by the Ministry of Science and Technology, among other high government authorities in China. Speakers included Jack Ma from Alibaba, Robin Li from Baidu, and Nick Bostrom from the Future of Humanity Institute. The conference was held in Tianjin in June 2017.
  • World Conference on Farm Animal Welfare, jointly hosted by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the International Cooperation Committee of Animal Welfare. The theme of the conference was to “advance farm animal welfare, promote sustainable development, advocate ethical consumption” and was attended by international organisations, government agencies, animal welfare experts, and livestock industry stakeholders.
  • You could also find a list of major conferences in China on this site.

Other prestigious options for talented Chinese citizens

Below are more options often pursued by talented Chinese citizens. However, they’re less directly relevant to our list of the most pressing global problems, so we don’t think they’re as useful.

  • Foundations: for instance, work at the Gates Foundation’s China office on domestic health and development, as well as promising interventions such as tobacco tax policy.
  • International organisations: some examples include IFC under World Bank Group and UNDP China office.
  • Teaching accelerator schemes: working at Chinese poverty alleviation and rural education charities such as Serve for China (黑土麦田) and Teach for China (美丽中国).
  • Social entrepreneurship accelerator schemes: if you are a social entrepreneur, it would be useful to get into programmes such as Harvard SEED Fellowship (哈佛社会创新种子社区) and Yiqiao Fellowship (益桥伙伴) with access to local resources, connections and mentorship.
  • Top nonprofits: working at Tencent Charity and China Development Brief (中国发展简报) to encourage public charitable giving and support the development sector.
  • Government position leadership schemes: for example, working at the government agency State Council Leading Group Office of Poverty Alleviation and Development (国务院扶贫办) to implement policy for poverty alleviation.
  • Joining bootcamps: e.g. programming bootcamps such as Le Wagon with programmes in Shanghai and Chengdu (ranked #1 on SwitchUp).

Biorisk reduction

We don’t know of any organisations explicitly focused on the importance of China related to existential risks from engineered pandemics, but you could aim to work at a Western organisation and apply your expertise in China. The Future of Humanity Institute and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk are good contenders, as well as any of Open Philanthropy’s grantees in this area. We would especially highlight Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which is partially funded to look into the Chinese perspectives on biosecurity risks associated with advances in biotechnology, and the Nuclear Threat Initiative, which also does work related to China.

Within conventional pandemics (as opposed to engineered pandemics), some options that are especially China-focused include:

  • The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) appears to be the most important institution working on this problem in the country. The Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program seems to be a promising option to get your foot in the door. There is also a one-year Western Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program that was launched in 2016, aiming to increase the epidemiologic capacity in the Western provinces of China.
  • The Center for Bio-safety Research and Strategy of Tianjin University was established in 2016, and is the first non-governmental think tank in China to conduct biosafety-related strategy and policy research, and the country’s first NGO to participate at the UN Biological Weapons Convention.
  • World Health Organization’s China office does post-SARS work on emerging disease surveillance and response. Its oversight organisation WHO in Western Pacific Region also developed the framework Asia Pacific Strategy for Emerging Diseases to respond to emerging disease threats.

Read about other organisations in our full profile.

Nuclear security

The Nuclear Threat Initiative has a China focus and also hosts the Beijing Seminar on International Security, which brings together experts from China and around the world to discuss nuclear security topics. It also collaborated with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations to organise a nuclear smuggling simulation exercise to highlight how China and the US could strengthen cooperation to prevent or respond to a nuclear smuggling incident.

Another promising option is the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. It’s based in Beijing and has the Nuclear Policy Program as one of its research focuses.

Another option we know less about is the Chinese State Nuclear Security Technology Center, which was jointly constructed by the China Atomic Energy Authority and the US Department of Energy. It is the largest nuclear programme to receive direct funding from both Chinese and US governments. The Centre aims to improve international cooperation on nuclear security and has the capacity to train about 2,000 nuclear security staff from China and other Asia-Pacific nations each year.

Read about other organisations in our full profile.

Factory farming

If you’re focused on factory farming, consider working at a Chinese animal welfare organisation.

All of the following groups have received grants from Open Philanthropy. Based on our knowledge on their interventions and effectiveness in China, our top recommendations are:

Other groups:

Organisations such as Mercy for Animals and ProVeg International are hiring as they expand in China.

Animal Charity Evaluators have told us that they may be interested in having volunteers analyse animal charities in China.

If you are Chinese, it would be worth looking into volunteer opportunities with local groups such as International Cooperation Committee of Animal Welfare, Good Food Academy (良食大学), and Universities and Colleges Vegetarian Association (高校素盟).

To get these positions, you’d probably need knowledge of both China and animal advocacy, and you might want to build the latter in the West by doing part-time advocacy.

A list of Chinese and Western organisations working on China-related issues in top problem areas

Biorisk reduction

We don’t know of any organisations explicitly focused on the importance of China related to existential risks from engineered pandemics, but you could aim to work at a Western organisation and apply your expertise in China. The Future of Humanity Institute and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk are good contenders, as well as any of Open Philanthropy’s grantees in this area. We would especially highlight Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which is partially funded to look into the Chinese perspectives on biosecurity risks associated with advances in biotechnology, and the Nuclear Threat Initiative, which also does work related to China.

Within conventional pandemics (as opposed to engineered pandemics), some options that are especially China-focused include:

  • The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) appears to be the most important institution working on this problem in the country. The Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program seems to be a promising option to get your foot in the door. There is also a one-year Western Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program that was launched in 2016, aiming to increase the epidemiologic capacity in the Western provinces of China.
  • The Center for Bio-safety Research and Strategy of Tianjin University was established in 2016, and is the first non-governmental think tank in China to conduct biosafety-related strategy and policy research, and the country’s first NGO to participate at the UN Biological Weapons Convention.
  • World Health Organization’s China office does post-SARS work on emerging disease surveillance and response. Its oversight organisation WHO in Western Pacific Region also developed the framework Asia Pacific Strategy for Emerging Diseases to respond to emerging disease threats.

Read about other organisations in our full profile.

Nuclear security

The Nuclear Threat Initiative has a China focus and also hosts the Beijing Seminar on International Security, which brings together experts from China and around the world to discuss nuclear security topics. It also collaborated with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations to organise a nuclear smuggling simulation exercise to highlight how China and the US could strengthen cooperation to prevent or respond to a nuclear smuggling incident.

Another promising option is the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. It’s based in Beijing and has the Nuclear Policy Program as one of its research focuses.

Another option we know less about is the Chinese State Nuclear Security Technology Center, which was jointly constructed by the China Atomic Energy Authority and the US Department of Energy. It is the largest nuclear programme to receive direct funding from both Chinese and US governments. The Centre aims to improve international cooperation on nuclear security and has the capacity to train about 2,000 nuclear security staff from China and other Asia-Pacific nations each year.

Read about other organisations in our full profile.

Factory farming

If you’re focused on factory farming, consider working at a Chinese animal welfare organisation.

All of the following groups have received grants from Open Philanthropy. Based on our knowledge on their interventions and effectiveness in China, our top recommendations are:

Other groups:

Organisations such as Mercy for Animals and ProVeg International are hiring as they expand in China.

Animal Charity Evaluators have told us that they may be interested in having volunteers analyse animal charities in China.

If you are Chinese, it would be worth looking into volunteer opportunities with local groups such as International Cooperation Committee of Animal Welfare, Good Food Academy (良食大学), and Universities and Colleges Vegetarian Association (高校素盟).

To get these positions, you’d probably need knowledge of both China and animal advocacy, and you might want to build the latter in the West by doing part-time advocacy.

AI safety and strategy

Currently, there are no Chinese organisations that explicitly work on long-term AI safety, so you have to find other ways of working on safety, e.g. by trying to encourage AI ethics and safety in Chinese labs.

For more detail and particular groups that might be relevant, see our article on China-related AI safety and governance paths.

How to assess your fit?

Compared to our other priority paths, who should especially consider this option?

If you have strong quantitative and research skills, then it’s likely better to focus more directly on AI strategy or technical research, biorisk research, global priorities research, or maybe even decision-making research (though you could combine these with a China focus). You could also consider earning to give in quantitative trading.

If you have a deep interest in effective altruism, a well-rounded skill set, and are good at getting things done, then it’s likely better to focus on grantmaking, operations, and other high-priority positions in effective altruism and global catastrophic risk organisations. You could also try to enter AI and biorisk policy in the US.

Focusing on the China expertise path seems most attractive if you have an interest in China and a humanities research skill set.

You need to be able to develop your expertise in China and effective altruism to at least the point where Western organisations would want to seek your advice.

If you’re not sure about your level of interest, then you could study in China for a month, or do some other kind of short visit or project, to see how interesting you find it. We may be able to help you find funding to cover this.

You could then pursue one of the more flexible paths listed above — such as graduate study (especially in economics), good early-career policy positions (think tank researcher, staffer, government leadership schemes), or work in technology companies — with the intention of focusing on China. If that doesn’t work out, you’ll have good backup options elsewhere in policy, research, earning to give, and so on.

Focusing on this path is also more attractive if you’re more focused on issues around global catastrophic risks, emerging technology, and factory farming, rather than global health.

If you are a Chinese citizen, then it would be best if you are already significantly involved in the effective altruism community in the West, and ideally have volunteered or interned with some of the organisations in the community.

What about Russia and India?

Many of the arguments above could also be made about Russia and India.

However, we see Russia as less important than China because it has a weaker technology industry, so isn’t nearly as likely to play a central role in AI or biotech development. It also has a much smaller economy and population in general, and hasn’t been growing at anywhere near the rate of China, so seems less likely to be a central global power in the future.

Likewise, we see India as significantly less likely to play a leading role in shaping new technologies than China. The existence of many English speakers in India also means there are more people able to fill the knowledge gap already, reducing the need for additional specialists.

Given this, we haven’t listed ‘Russia specialist’ or ‘India specialist’ in our priority paths.

However, we think these specialities are currently under-explored, especially given how important they could become in the next few decades. For these reasons, we expect becoming an expert in these countries (or another emerging global power) could be a very high-impact option for some people.

Want one-on-one advice on pursuing this path?

Because this is one of our priority paths, if you think this path might be a great option for you, we’d be especially excited to advise you on next steps, one-on-one. We can help you consider your options, make connections with others working in the same field, and possibly even help you find jobs or funding opportunities.

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Notes and references

  1. According to the report Attractiveness Program Africa published by Ernst & Young in May 2017, China made the biggest amount in FDI capital investment and created the greatest number of jobs via FDI globally in 2016. Note that in terms of the number of FDI projects, China stood as the third largest country behind the U.S. and France. The figures of the report are sourced from fDi Markets, a service provided by the Financial Times.

  2. Boden, T.A., Marland, G., and Andres, R.J. (2017). “National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2014”, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Archived link, retrieved 24-Aug-2017. For a clear illustration of the data, see the chart “2014 Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning Combustion and Some Industrial Processes”. Archived link, retrieved 24-Aug-2017.

    The same figure was used by the Chinese media company Sina in reporting the Paris Agreement meeting in 2015.

  3. According to a report released by US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, China accounted for half of the US$2.2tn investment in energy efficiency during 2016.

  4. Source: OECD (2017), Meat consumption (indicator). doi: 10.1787/fa290fd0-en (Accessed on 24 August 2017). From the data, the U.S. consumes roughly twice as much meat per capita than China. Given that China has about 4 times the population as the U.S., China consumes twice as much meat than the U.S. in aggregate. Being the largest global consumer, China eats about a quarter of the world’s meat.

  5. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). “World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables”. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/248. As of 1 July 2017, according to the report, there are 1.41 billion individuals in China out of a total of 7.55 billion in the world.

    According to Lloyd Risk Assessment, 7 out of 20 (or 4 out of the top 10) cities most at risk of initiating a human pandemic are located in China, measured by potential loss in GDP. Archived link, retrieved 24-Aug-2017. In the last century, there was a number of regional flu strains originated in China: Asian Flu (1957–1958), Hong Kong Flu (1968–1969), SARS (2003) and most recently H7N9 Avian Flu (2013).

  6. According to Global Technology Innovation Hub Report 2017 published by KPMG, 26% respondents voted U.S. and 25% voted China in response to the question “Which countries show the most promise for disruptive technology breakthrough that will have a global impact?”.

    Sam Altman, President of Y Combinator, said on Reddit that:

    I think China is probably the second most interesting startup market to me in the world right now (after Silicon Valley).

    Archived link, retrieved 24-Aug-2017.

    During an interview with CNBC in 2016, former CEO of Uber Travis Kalanick said that Beijing will rival San Francisco in the next 5 to 10 years. Archived link, retrieved 24-Aug-2017.

  7. According to Crunchbase, as of February 2018, there are 279 unicorns globally with the U.S. accounting for roughly half of them. China is the second lead with more than 90 unicorns, contributing to about 30%. Moreover, there are 4 Chinese companies in the world’s top 10 in terms of valuation: Didi, Xiaomi, Lu.com and Meituan-Dianping. Archived link, retrieved 26-Feb-2018.

  8. Most experts seem to believe that China still lags behind the U.S. in AI development, but there are several significant factors that may change the future dynamic. For example, China has strong support from the state, abundance of data from a large pool of mobile phone users and potential of talent transfer from overseas. Also, Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and iFlyTek seem to be competitive in AI R&D and commercialisation on a global level.

  9. Goldberg, D., Looney, D., & Lusin, N. (2015, February). “Enrollments in Languages Other Than English in United States Institutions of Higher Education, Fall 2013”. In Modern Language Association. Modern Language Association. 26 Broadway 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10004-1789. As of 2013 when the surveys were conducted, there were 61,055 students studying Chinese, 790,756 studying Spanish and 197,757 studying French. According to the same study, there were 66,740 American students studying Japanese.

  10. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). “World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables”. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/248. As of 1 July 2017, according to the report, there are 1.41 billion individuals in China and 127 million in Japan.

  11. “China’s New Law Governing Foreign NGOs — An Overview and Quick Compliance Guide”, WTP, May 10, 2016, link

  12. U.S. Department of State, The Foreign Service Institute. “Language Learning Difficulty for English Speakers”. Archived link, retrieved 14-Oct-2007. The study was conducted based on “the length of time it takes to achieve Speaking 3: General Professional Proficiency in Speaking (S3) and Reading 3: General Professional Proficiency in Reading (R3).” for native English speakers. To learn “Category I: Languages closely related to English” such as Dutch, French, Italian and Spanish, it requires approximately 575-600 class hours to reach such level of fluency. Mandarin Chinese belongs to “Category III: Languages which are quite difficult for native English speakers”, which takes about 2200 class hours.

  13. For instance, at Beijing Language and Culture University, it costs 23,200RMB (~$3,500) to enroll in a one-year Chinese Language Program. However, if you choose to enroll in a 4-week Regular Course with 20 class hours per week, it would cost 3,500RMB (~$530).

  14. According to Nomad List, a community of remote workers who find destinations to go and places to work, these cities cost about $600-650 per month to live. There are even cities such as Nanyang and Wenling that cost less than $500 per month, but they are arguably much more challenging for foreigners to navigate.