The AI 2027 scenario and what it means: a video tour

AI 2027, a research-based scenario and report from the AI Futures Project, combines forecasting and storytelling to explore a possible future where AI radically transforms the world by 2027.

Some of you will have read this report, or come across it. Lead author, Daniel Kokotajlo, was interviewed by New York Times columnist Ross Douthat and US Vice President JD Vance claims to have read the report. Some of you might not have heard of it yet, or haven’t had the time to dig in…

So we made a video diving into it.

Why take the AI 2027 scenario seriously

The report goes through the creation of AI agents, job loss, the role of AIs improving other AIs (R&D acceleration loops), security crackdowns, misalignment — and then a choice: slow down or race ahead.

Kokotajlo’s predictions from 2021 (pre-ChatGPT) in What 2026 looks like have proved prescient, and co-author Eli Lifland is among the world’s top forecasters. So even if you don’t end up buying all its claims, the report’s grounding in serious forecaster views, research, and dozens of wargames makes it worth taking seriously.

Why watch our AI 2027 video

Containing expert interviews, our analysis, and discussion of what a sane world would be doing, we think the video will be an enjoyable and informative watch whether you’re familiar with the report or not.

The video:

• Takes you through one of the most detailed and influential AI forecast to date and brings you into the story
• Explains the key upshots — how AI progress could accelerate dramatically via powerful feedback loops, and what that might mean for security, human empowerment, and the global order
• Gives you insights into the thinking behind the scenario via an interview with the scenario’s lead creator, Daniel Kokotajlo
• Highlights some criticisms and counterarguments

We recommend reading the report as well — it’s shockingly readable for having so much information. But if you don’t have time for that, the video covers its key points in 40 minutes (faster if you speed it up!).

If you’re thinking about a career helping reduce AI risk, we think it’s worth a watch. But even if you’re not, we think it’s time for the broader public to enter the conversation on what fast AI progress could mean and how it could happen, and we’d love your help making that happen.

This is the first longform video from the new 80,000 Hours video programme. We hope you’ll find the video compelling, informative, and enjoyable to watch, and we’d love your feedback on it!

Learn more:

• Explore our shortform videos and learn more about our new video programme.
• The authors of AI 2027 share what they think you can do about AI 2027.
• Check out our AGI careers hub to learn more about how you could help tackle the challenges posed by AI development.