Should you quit your job — and work on risks from AI?

Within 5 years, there’s a real chance that AI systems will be created that cause explosive technological and economic change. This would increase the risk of disasters like war between US and China, concentration of power in a small minority, or even total loss of human control over the future.

Many people — with a diverse range of skills and experience — are urgently needed to help mitigate these risks.

I think you should consider making this the focus of your career.

This article explains why.

1) World-changing AI systems could come much sooner than people expect

In an earlier article I explained why there’s a significant chance that AI could contribute to scientific research or automate many jobs by 2030. Current systems can already do a lot, there are clear ways to continue to improve them in the coming years. Forecasters and experts widely agree that the probability of widespread disruption is much higher than it was even just a couple of years ago.

2) The impact on society could be explosive

People say AI will be transformative, but few really get just how wild it could be. Here are three types of explosive impact we might see, which are now all supported by credible theoretical and empirical research:

• The intelligence explosion: it might only take a few years from developing advanced AI to having billions of AI remote workers, making cognitive labour available for pennies.

• The technological explosion: empirically informed estimates suggest that with sufficiently advanced AI 100 years of technological progress in 10 is plausible. That means we could have advanced biotech, robotics, novel political philosophies, and more arrive much sooner than commonly imagined.

• The industrial explosion: if AI and robotics automate industrial production that would create a positive feedback loop, meaning production could plausibly end up doubling each year. Within a decade of reaching that growth rate, humanity would harvest all available solar energy on Earth and start to expand into space.

Along the way, we could see rapid progress on many key technological challenges — like curing cancer and developing green energy. But…

3) Advanced AI could bring enormous dangers

We’ve written before about how it might be hard to keep control of billions of AI systems thinking 10x faster than ourselves. But that’s only the first hurdle. The developments above could:

• Destabilise the world order (e.g. leading to conflict over Taiwan)
• Enable the development of new weapons of mass destruction, like man-made viruses
• Empower governments (or even individual companies) to entrench their power
• Force us to face civilisation-defining questions about how to treat AI systems, how to share the benefits of AI, and how to govern an expansion into space.

4) Under 10,000 people work full-time reducing the risks

Although it can feel like all anyone talks about is AI, only a few thousand people worldwide work full-time on navigating some of the most important aspects of the risks.

This is tiny compared to the millions working on more established issues like cancer or climate change, or the number of people working to deploy the technology as quickly as possible.

If you switch to this issue now, you could be among the first 10,000 people helping humanity navigate what may be the one of the most important transitions in history.

5) There are more and more concrete jobs you could take

A couple of years ago, there weren’t many clearly defined projects, positions or training routes to work on this issue. Today, there are more and more concrete ways to help. For example:

• See this list of technical safety projects
• Join one of the many growing AI policy think tanks around the world
• Work to improve forecasting and data about AI
• Build defences against man-made viruses, like better PPE and detection tools
• And more

We’ve compiled a list of 30+ important organisations in the space, over 300 open jobs, and lists of fellowships, courses, internships, etc., to help you enter the field. Many of these are all well-paid too.

You don’t need to be technical or even focus directly on AI — we need people building organisations, in government, communications, and with many other skills. And AI is going to affect every aspect of society, so people with knowledge of all those aspects are needed (e.g. China, economics, pandemics, international governance, law, etc.).

The field was also small until recently, so there’s not many people with deep expertise. That means it’s often possible to spend about 100 hours reading and speaking to people, and then find a job. (And if you have a quantitative background, it’s possible to get to the technical forefront in under a year.) Our team can help you figure out how to transition.

6) The next five years seem crucial

I’ve argued the chance of building powerful AI is unusually high between now and around 2030, and declines thereafter. This makes the next five years especially critical.

That creates an additional reason to switch soon: if transformative AI emerges in the next five years, you’ll be part of one of the most important transitions in human history. If it doesn’t, you’ll have time to return to your previous path, while having learned about a technology that will still shape our world in significant ways.

The bottom line

If you’re able to find a role that fits, and that helps mitigate these risks (especially over the next 5–10 years), that’s probably the highest expected impact thing you can do.

But I don’t think everyone reading this should work on AI.

1. You might not have the flexibility to make a large career change right now. (In that case, you could look to donate, spread clear thinking about the issue, or prepare to switch when future opportunities arise.)
2. There are other important problems, and you might have far better fit for a job focused on another issue.
3. You might be too concerned about the (definitely huge) uncertainties about how best to help or be less convinced by the arguments that it’s pressing.

However, I’d encourage almost everyone interested in impactful careers to seriously consider it. And if you’re unsure you’ll be able to find something, keep in mind there’s a very wide range of approaches and opportunities, and they’re expanding all the time.¹