#250 – Toby Ord on where AGI timelines go wrong
Both Silicon Valley and the public can’t get enough of ‘AGI timelines.’ But Toby Ord, senior researcher at Oxford’s AI Governance Initiative and author of The Precipice, believes we consistently make big mistakes when thinking about them. He lays out the 14 ways he most often sees people go wrong:
- Assuming AI research is just hill-climbing
- Imagining AI research is just programming
- Forecasting “could” instead of “will”
- Believing the current benchmark is the last one
- Extrapolating trends with no clear finish line
- Assuming inputs keep scaling at the same rate
- Conflating intelligence with capability
- Consuming point estimates and discarding the error bars
- Dismissing dissenting experts
- Forecasting very different things while using the same words
- Assuming capabilities arrive together
- Treating “we don’t know” as permission to carry on as usual
- Choosing a plan that minimises regret rather than maximises impact
- Trusting surface model impressiveness
In this extended conversation with Rob Wiblin, Toby also explains why he thinks:
- AI self-improvement is uniquely dangerous in four ways, but also might not even work
- A ban on superintelligence is possible
- A US-China treaty on superintelligence is also possible
- The case for ‘broad timelines’
- Transformative AI is likely a decade away
- We should just ban unmonitorable chain-of-thought today.
This episode was recorded on July 2, 2026.
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