#253 – AI 2027’s author returns with a plan to change the ending | Daniel Kokotajlo
Last year, Daniel Kokotajlo and his colleagues published AI 2027 — a scenario read by millions, including US Vice President Vance. AI 2027 ended in human extinction or an irreversible concentration of power caused by superintelligent AI. Now his team has published what they think should happen instead.
AI 2040: Plan A depicts the US and China striking a verified deal to ban runaway intelligence explosions, so that superintelligence arrives in 2040 — after a cautious decade spent solving alignment, spreading the technology’s power widely, and keeping the whole thing reversible — rather than in the next few years.
This slowdown would still involve economic growth roughly doubling every year, and only 8% of Americans in paid work by the mid-2030s. In other words, it’s a slowdown that would feel faster than any period in human history — bewildering, materially abundant, and socially chaotic all at once.
Daniel and host Luisa Rodriguez dig into what it would take to enact this vision for the future, how the US and China could come to an agreement to slow down AI development, and the likeliest alternatives to Plan A — both good and disastrous.
This episode was recorded July 27–28, 2026.
Our team is hiring! The 80,000 Hours Podcast aims to help the world safely navigate the transition to transformative AI. Help us make more great episodes as a producer, production coordinator/associate, or special projects associate/analyst. Applications close August 30!
Our production team includes:
- Video editors: Josh Alward, Dominic Armstrong, Ollie Bignell, Andrés Escobar, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour
- Producers: Elizabeth Cox and Nick Stockton
- Coordination and support: Katy Moore and Lou Moran







