#194 – Vitalik Buterin on defensive acceleration and how to regulate AI when you fear government
Can ‘effective accelerationists’ and AI ‘doomers’ agree on a common philosophy of technology? Common sense says no. But programmer and Ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin showed otherwise with his essay “My techno-optimism,” which both camps agreed was basically reasonable.
Seeing his social circle divided and fighting, Vitalik hoped to write a careful synthesis of the best ideas from both the optimists and the apprehensive.
Accelerationists are right: most technologies leave us better off, the human cost of delaying further advances can be dreadful, and centralising control in government hands often ends disastrously.
But the fearful are also right: some technologies are important exceptions, AGI has an unusually high chance of being one of those, and there are options to advance AI in safer directions.
The upshot? Defensive acceleration: humanity should run boldly but also intelligently into the future — speeding up technology to get its benefits, but preferentially developing ‘defensive’ technologies that lower systemic risks, permit safe decentralisation of power, and help both individuals and countries defend themselves against aggression and domination.
What sorts of things is he talking about? In the area of disease prevention it’s most easy to see: disinfecting indoor air, rapid-turnaround vaccine platforms, and nasal spray vaccines that prevent disease transmission all make us safer against pandemics without generating any apparent new threats of their own. (And they might eliminate the common cold to boot!)
Entrepreneur First is running a defensive acceleration incubation programme with $250,000 of investment. If these ideas resonate with you, learn about the programme and apply here. You don’t need a business idea yet — just the hustle to start a technology company. But you’ll need to act fast and apply by August 2, 2024.
Vitalik explains how he mentally breaks down defensive technologies into four broad categories:
- Defence against big physical things like tanks.
- Defence against small physical things like diseases.
- Defence against unambiguously hostile information like fraud.
- Defence against ambiguously hostile information like possible misinformation.
The philosophy of defensive acceleration has a strong basis in history. Mountain or island countries that are hard to invade, like Switzerland or Britain, tend to have more individual freedom and higher quality of life than the Mongolian steppes — where “your entire mindset is around kill or be killed, conquer or be conquered”: a mindset Vitalik calls “the breeding ground for dystopian governance.”
Defensive acceleration arguably goes back to ancient China, where the Mohists focused on helping cities build better walls and fortifications, an approach that really did reduce the toll of violent invasion, until progress in offensive technologies of siege warfare allowed them to be overcome.
In addition to all of that, host Rob Wiblin and Vitalik discuss:
- AI regulation disagreements being less about AI in particular, and more whether you’re typically more scared of anarchy or totalitarianism.
- Vitalik’s updated p(doom).
- Whether the social impact of blockchain and crypto has been a disappointment.
- Whether humans can merge with AI, and if that’s even desirable.
- The most valuable defensive technologies to accelerate.
- How to trustlessly identify what everyone will agree is misinformation
- Whether AGI is offence-dominant or defence-dominant.
- Vitalik’s updated take on effective altruism.
- Plenty more.
Producer and editor: Keiran Harris
Audio engineering team: Ben Cordell, Simon Monsour, Milo McGuire, and Dominic Armstrong
Transcriptions: Katy Moore