Self-developer

What do we mean by this strategy?

Enter careers that enable you to build a package of generally valuable skills, connections and credentials – ‘career capital’.

What’s our evidence this strategy is promising?

At the start of their careers, most people can significantly boost their abilities to make a difference over the rest of their careers by first investing in themselves. We think this is common sense, but it has also been supported by our investigations into specific ways to build career capital. For instance, we’ve found many examples of people who have been able to boost their income 20-100% within six months by learning to program.

It’s important to focus on building career capital which will serve you well in many different scenarios, because it’s hard to predict where the best opportunities will be in the future. For instance, if you learn to program, then you’ll have decent employment prospects (including part-time and remote work), and you’ll also be in a better position to do research, entrepreneurship and contribute to non-profits.

Which options are best within this strategy?

If you want to maximise your self-development, focus on options that give you good opportunities to build career capital and are a strong personal fit. If there’s an area you think you could excel within, consider doing that, even if it’s not obviously “high-impact”.

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7 strategies for having an impact with your career

We want to find the best career opportunities in the world. The problem is, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics lists several thousand career profiles, so we need ways to narrow down careers to find the most promising ones.

One way we narrow down careers is by identifying promising ‘strategies’ for impact. A strategy is a general method for having a big impact that applies to many different jobs.

On this page, we outline the main strategies we’ve identified so far and say which paths seem best within each. We’ve found all of these strategies useful for discovering and categorising the high impact paths we’ve investigated so far, as well as analysing career choices with the people we coach. We sketch our reasoning for each individual strategy below.

As part of our how to choose process, you can use these strategies to get ideas for new options and as a checklist to compare the options you’ve already identified. If you’re considering an option fits with two or three of these strategies, that’s a good sign – don’t follow one to the exclusion of all the others.


Strategies for putting you in a better long-term position

Early in your career, it’s normally more important to focus on setting yourself up to have a big impact in the long-term rather than having an immediate impact (see more on our criteria page). In this section, we outline some strategies for building your long-run potential for impact.

The initial priority is to explore your options, so the first two strategies are about doing that. Then the next priority is to invest in your human capital, so the second two strategies are more focused on that.

1. Do something new and challenging that intrigues you

What do we mean by this strategy?

Do something that (i) is difficult, so that it stretches your abilities,(ii) is different to what you’ve done before and (iii) intrigues you, so that you’re motivated to work on it. Some common examples are living abroad somewhere without English speakers, switching sectors or trying a startup.

What’s our evidence this strategy is promising?

  • Trying areas outside of your experience will help you explore your options more quickly, which is the key priority when you don’t know much about the world of careers. In particular, it can help you discover ‘unknown unknowns’ – important considerations you didn’t even realise existed.
  • If it’s also challenging and intriguing, then it’s more likely to stretch your abilities, which will help you learn more, while also building skills.
  • It’s widely regarded as useful for young people to undergo a period of exploration before they settle into a career.

Which options are best within this strategy?

There are many possibilities and it depends on your situation. Often we just stumble across interesting opportunities that are easy to ignore because they seem a little risky – someone offers you a job somewhere you hadn’t considered working; you get given the option to study abroad for a year; or you come up with an idea for an interesting science project. Don’t dismiss these out of hand!

You can also think through the different career worlds and try to explore the ones you know least about, for instance: academia; finance; industry; the entrepreneurial tech community; the policy world; the nonprofit sector; the arts; and working within government. If you’ve never experienced one of these worlds, consider giving it a go – you could start with something small like shadowing someone or doing an internship. Alternatively, consider working within a cause you know very little about.

One potential downside of this strategy is that if you do something completely random it can cut down your opportunities elsewhere. So, don’t act on this strategy to the complete exclusion of the others. As always, it’s also best to start small then scale up your efforts as you learn more. If you’re unsure about switching sector, first speak to people in the career, then volunteer or intern, and only then switch jobs.

2. Learn more about a ‘high-variance’ career

What do we mean by this strategy?

Some career paths have extremely skewed outcomes. For instance, many people drop out of investment banking in the first couple of years, whereas others go on to earn tens of millions of dollars. Sometimes it’s possible to learn more about your how hard it would be for you to succeed in one of these careers by trying them out – perhaps first by doing something small like an internship, and then later working in them for a year or two. Since the potential outcomes are so skewed, this provides valuable information.

What’s our evidence this strategy is promising?

  • The value of testing out a path has often been an important consideration among the people we’ve coached.
  • We’ve found several career types with skewed outcomes that are possible learn much more about in just a couple of years, providing high value of information.

Which options are best within this strategy?

This strategy is best when long-term outcomes are very skewed, but it’s possible to learn about your prospects relatively quickly and cheaply.

Of the paths we’ve investigated so far, the most high-variance are:

  1. Valuable academic research
  2. Tech entrepreneurship
  3. Founding effective global poverty nonprofits
  4. Journalism
  5. Front office finance
  6. Trading in quantitative hedge funds
  7. High-end law

Those that seem the quickest and cheapest to test are:

  1. Front office finance
  2. Trading in quantitative hedge funds

3. Do something you can excel in

What do we mean by this strategy?

If you’ve discovered an activity in which you have a reasonable chance of being world-class if you work hard at it, consider doing it.

What’s our evidence this strategy is promising?

In our experience, we’ve found that being extremely good at something is often the best way to gain career capital, even if the area doesn’t immediately seem high-impact, because (i) it’s impressive, (ii) gives you access to other influential people, and (iii) means you’re developing world class skills. Being really good at something can also be a way to make a big difference, because in many fields the top performers produce most of the value.

For more reasons, see what we’ve written about the advantages of personal fit.

Which options are best within this strategy?

This depends entirely on the individual. See our ideas on how to find the options with the best personal fit on our personal fit page.

4. Build valuable skills

What do we mean by this strategy?

Find a skill-set that’s in demand and transferable, and spend several years developing expertise in that skill.

What’s our evidence this strategy is promising?

At the start of your career, it’s likely you can significantly boost your abilities to make a difference over the rest of your career by investing in building skills. We think this is common-sense, but it has also been supported by our investigations to date. For instance, we’ve found many examples of people who have been able to boost their income 20-100% within six months by learning to program.

In particular, focus on skills that are (i) in-demand and (ii) transferable. If the skills are in-demand, then you’re likely to have decent employment prospects, and when you’re more established, you’ll be able to direct these skills towards supporting good causes. If the skills are also transferable, then they keep your options open, which is important because it’s hard to predict where the best opportunities will be in the future.

Which options are best within this strategy?

So far, we’ve identified the following skill-sets that seem relatively in demand and transferable:

  • Statistics
  • Machine learning
  • Programming
  • ‘Founder skills’ i.e. the ability to autonomously launch a new project.

Other useful, transferable skills include:

  • Sales
  • Communication
  • Management
  • Networking
  • Personal productivity i.e. the ability to manage your time and motivate yourself.

You learn skills most quickly when you have good feedback, so you can measure your performance. On the job training and supporting, growth minded atmosphere are also important. Of the career paths we’ve investigated so far some that seem particularly good for skill-building include:

  • Tech entrepreneurship
  • Software engineering
  • Trading in quantitative hedge funds
  • Economics PhD
  • Work in marketing
  • Consulting

See all our articles on skills.

This concludes the section on strategies for building your long-run potential.


Strategies for immediate impact

In the last section, we considered strategies for exploring your options and investing in yourself. Once you’ve done this, it’s time to move your focus towards using your skills and knowledge to make a difference. In this section, we consider four strategies for doing that.

1. Take a job at, or found, an effective organisation that’s a good fit for you

What do we mean by this strategy?

There are many nonprofit and for-profit organisations that have a large impact, which are short of specific types of human capital. If you’re a good fit for a high-impact organisation or think you’re in a good position to found one, that’s an option worth considering. By high-impact organisations we mean those that are well-run and work on an effective cause. For more, see here.

What’s our evidence this strategy is promising?

Taking a job at or founding an organisation with a social purpose is probably the most popular way to have an immediate impact with your career. We think there’s a lot of truth in this view. There are many organisations that achieve great things which say they are constrained by an unusual type of human capital. For instance, GiveWell are constrained by people who are able to carry out their research. If you can provide this human capital, then you may have the opportunity to have an outsized impact.

However, it’s important to note some limitations. First, many organisations with a social purpose don’t have much social impact. So, it’s important to focus on working at effective organisations rather than just those with an explicitly social purpose. Second, the organisation may not be heavily constrained by the type of human capital you can offer. That’s why it’s important to focus on organisations where you’re a good fit.

  • Taking a job at an organisation with a social purpose is seen as a common-sense way to make a difference.

We think founding organisations – entrepreneurship – is likely to offer even more scope for impact, though with higher risk. That’s because:

  • People who are generally regarded as influential or high-impact have often founded effective organisations. For instance, Elon Musk, the founder of Solar City, Tesla and SpaceX. Within the nonprofit sector, we think founders of SCI and Against Malaria Foundation have had a big impact.
  • Setting up new organisations involves innovation, which is a public good), so it’s difficult to capture the gains for yourself. This means people are likely underincentivised to build new organisations (it’s a market failure).
  • When setting up a new organisation, the chance of failing is high, so people are under-incentivised to pursue it in order to gain personal status.

Which options are best within this strategy?

We haven’t yet formally reviewed any organisations, though we have written about several, and of those we think that working at GiveWell is a particularly attractive option. See all our articles on organisations.

If you’re considering pursuing this strategy, ask yourself:

  • Is the organization likely to be particularly effective?
  • Does the organization provide excellent training?/Will founding this organisation provide good learning opportunities?
  • Does the organisation have a special need for someone with your skills?
  • Are your sure that you want to work within this sector in the long-term?

If interested in entrepreneurship, see our profiles on tech entrepreneurship and founding effective global poverty focused nonprofits.

2. If you’re a good fit, do research in a high-potential field

What do we mean by this strategy?

Some people are especially good at and interested in research – attempting to create new knowledge. If this is you, and have you have the opportunity to work in a field that seems particularly important, tractable and neglected, then this could be a way to have a large impact.

Most often, this strategy is carried out within academia, though it could also be in business, government, think tanks, or nonprofit research institutes.

What’s our evidence this strategy is promising?

Doing research is commonly regarded as a way to make a big difference, and we think this is broadly right: there are many areas of research with great humanitarian importance, and some researchers are many times more productive than others.1 This suggests that someone with high-potential as a researcher may be able to have an outsized impact. Some additional evidence includes:

  • Many of the most apparently high impact people in history were researchers. such as Norman Borlaug and those in this list.
  • New knowledge is a a public good), so it’s difficult to capture the gains for yourself. This means people are likely underincentivised to build do research (it’s a market failure).
  • Since the chances of success are low, people are also under-incentivised to pursue it in order to gain personal status (though it’s unclear how much weight to put on this).

However, we think there’s an important qualification to be made to the common sense view. We think it’s important to focus on particularly ‘high-potential areas’. That’s because although every field of research has something to contribute and it’s difficult to predict where the next crucial discoveries will be made, some areas seem to offer significantly more potential for impact than others.

  • Doing research seems to be regarded as a common-sense way to have a big impact.

Which options are best within this strategy?

Early career:

We think it’s important to keep your options open, since we’ll have better information about which areas are most promising in the future. This favors entering disciplines that develop strong, transferable skill-sets that are in demand, such as statistics, programming and machine learning. This suggests starting your career within applied maths, physics, economics or computer science if those subjects are a good fit.

It’s important to bear in mind the job prospects. Fields vary dramatically in both the difficulty of getting an academic job post-PhD, and in the difficulty of finding jobs outside of academia. Within philosophy, for example, there are more new PhDs than academic jobs, and a philosophy PhD doesn’t naturally build skills relevant for other sorts of career. This makes it hard to become an academic within philosophy even if you have a PhD from a very good program. In contrast, within economics the number of academic jobs matches the number of applications more closely, and economics PhDs are well-regarded within policy and business.

Another important consideration is the extent to which one can have an impact outside of academia. Again, economics PhDs are well-regarded within policy and business, to a much greater degree than philosophy PhDs are. This is a point in favor of applied maths, economics, certain types of psychology and computer science.

After you’ve done your PhD, you can start to focus more on your immediate impact:

Consider entering fields that will allow you to contribute to high-potential causes. These are fields that seem particularly important, tractable and neglected, thus hold more potential for impact than others.

Within a field, how can you pick the best research question? We’ve listed some ideas for heuristics, and asked this question to four senior biomedical researchers (upcoming).

See all our articles on research. So far, we have identified studying economics as a promising path.

Is this strategy for you?

We think those who are a good fit for research have:

  • Particularly high intelligence.
  • High levels of grit and self-motivation, to persist for years in the face of a high chance of failure.
  • Social skills to build collaborations and secure funding.
  • Deep intrinsic interest in the relevant subject matter.

3. Earn to give

What do we mean by this strategy?

Some people have skills that are better suited to earning money than the other strategies. These people can take a higher earning career and donate the money to effective organisations.

What’s our evidence this strategy is promising?

  • Some people are unusually well-suited to earning money. They can take a high-earning job and donate enough to pay for several people to replace them in the nonprofit sector. Alternatively, earning to give is a way for anyone to make a difference, even if they don’t want to change which industry they work within.
  • This money wouldn’t have been donated otherwise, since people in high-earning careers don’t donate much of their income to charity.2
  • This strategy is flexible: money can be readily reallocated to whichever organisation is most in need of funding at the time.
  • There’s also solid research into which nonprofits are most effective (for instance, as provided by GiveWell, which you can take advantage of.
  • Some wealthy philanthropists have had a huge impact in the past, and it may be possible to replicate their success by pursuing careers in business. Cases of philanthropists who deliberately aimed to make money in order to donate it are rarer, but do exist. For instance, Britain’s largest philanthropist, Chris Hohn, set up a hedge fund with the intention of donating much of the earnings.

Since this path is more unusual, we’ve carried out extensive research into its pros and cons, and have published a paper on the topic. You can see a summary of our findings on our earning to give page.

Which options are best within this strategy?

Of the paths we’ve investigated so far, those that we’ve found to be highest earning (though also often risky and extremely competitive) are, in order:

  1. Tech entrepreneurship
  2. Trading in quantitative hedge funds
  3. Front office finance
  4. Consulting
  5. High-end law
  6. Medicine

Taking into account the level of competition, it’s also worth considering the following options:

  1. Software engineering
  2. Marketing

In practice, you shouldn’t only consider the earnings of different paths as they stand today. You should also consider:

  1. What’s the value of the direct impact of the work? Might you cause harm?
  2. Which option will provide the best career capital?
  3. Will you be able to go through with making your donations, or will the culture cause you to give up?

Don’t forget, you may be able to have more impact inspiring others to donate than donating yourself. That suggests it may be better to do something you enjoy where you’ll get along with your colleagues than simply earning the most money.

Is this strategy for you?

Earning to give seems best when:

  1. You have a strong comparative advantage in a high-earning job.
  2. You’re particularly concerned to keep your options open about which cause to support.
  3. You’re at the start of your career and want to build career capital (because high-earning jobs often build good career capital).
  4. You think you can go through with donating a large percentage of your income, even if your colleagues don’t.

4. Take a job that enables you to advocate for high priority causes

What do we mean by this strategy?

By this strategy, we mean taking a job that gives you the ability to promote and unite people behind important ideas. These jobs often offer a combination of:

  • A public platform that can be used to reach a large number of people e.g. a journalist.
  • An influential network e.g. a lobbyist.
  • Influence over a large organisation e.g. the director of a foundation.
  • Credibility so that other people will listen to you e.g. an academic.

However, having one of these positions doesn’t guarantee that you’ll have a large impact. You also need to use the position to promote important, neglected ideas that can have a large impact if they spread.

What’s our evidence this strategy is promising?

Promoting important ideas is commonly regarded as a way to make a big difference, and many of those who are widely regarded as the most significant figures in history (e.g. as compiled by TIME) are political or cultural leaders, who were responsible for shaping the space of ideas. We think this is broadly right, and note some additional reasons in favor:

  • This strategy is flexible: you can use your position to promote whichever causes are most effective at the time.
  • Although someone else would have the position if you don’t take it, if you’re more motivated by social impact than average, it seems likely that you’ll better use the position to promote high-impact ideas. This is particularly true because there’s no market incentive to advocate effectively.
  • We’ve identified other studies of high-impact people who were advocates e.g. Viktor Zhadanov.
  • In our experience, it seems you can often achieve more by mobilising others than just acting yourself. See more here.

Which options are best within this strategy?

Of the paths we’ve investigated so far, those that we’ve found to provide the best advocacy potential are:

  • Party politics (high risk)
  • Journalism (high risk)
  • Valuable academic research
  • Foundation program officer
  • Program manager in international organisations
  • Policy-oriented civil service

Note that working at a nonprofit focused on campaigning would fall under the first strategy.

If considering this path, some important questions to ask yourself are:

  1. How much career capital will I get out of this path, in case my advocacy efforts don’t pay off?
  2. What causes do I intend to promote that are neglected?

See all our articles on advocacy here.


What other strategies are there, and which are best?

We don’t think the above is an exhaustive list of the best strategies for making a difference with your career. We expect the list to grow and change over time. In particular, we would like to do more historical studies of high impact people and try to better understand what strategies they used. We’re also very unsure which strategies are most promising for different people, and would like to learn more by doing in-depth studies of individual career paths.

Of the strategies above, the first four strategies for immediate impact are very similar to the ‘five types of career’ (earning to give, influencer, improver, innovator and researcher) which we introduced right at the start of 80,000 Hours in 2011, so we feel relatively confident we’ll stick with them. The four strategies for building your long-run potential for impact, however, are newer, so more likely to change.

Another strategy that we’ve heard discussed is the idea of working in influential areas where you’re more focused on social impact than your colleagues, with the hope of spotting neglected opportunities to have a social impact. For instance, if a group of scientists were developing a new technology without much concern for the risk, there could be good opportunities for a socially motivated person to join the group and look out for cheap ways to reduce the risk that aren’t going to be taken otherwise.

We’ve also discussed the idea of taking an unglamorous role near a high-impact person with the idea of facilitating and amplifying their impact.

So far, however, we haven’t come across any concrete, widely applicable career paths that resemble either of these two strategies and are sufficiently distinct from advocacy or working at an organisation with good fit, so we haven’t included them.


Notes and References


  1. Our impression from interviewing people in the field (for instance our interviews in biomedical research) is that the idea that some researchers are many times more productive than others is regarded as common sense within science. Another strand of evidence is the power-law distribution of citations per paper
  2. This study showed that in the UK the rich only give about 1% of their income to charity, and the figures seem to only be slightly higher in the US e.g. Ken Berger claims they give 1.3%

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Conversation with Paul Christiano on Cause Prioritization Research

Christiano

Participants

  • Paul Christiano: Computer science PhD student at UC Berkeley
  • Katja Grace: Research Assistant, Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Summary

This is a verbatim email conversation from the 26th of March 2014. Paul is a proponent of cause prioritization research. Here he explains his support of prioritization research, and makes some suggestions about how to do it.

Note: Paul is Katja’s boyfriend, so consider reading his inclusion as a relevant expert with a grain of salt.

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Conversation with Owen Cotton-Barratt of the Global Priorities Project

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Notes

This is a summary made by Katja of points made by Owen during a conversation on March 24 2014.

What the Global Priorities Project (GPP) does

The Global Priorities Project is new, and intends to experiment for a while with different types of projects and then work on those that appear highest value in the longer term. Their work will likely address questions about how to prioritize, improve arguments around different options, and will produce recommendations. It will probably be mostly research, but also include for instance some policy lobbying. They will likely do some work with concrete policy-relevant consequences and also some work on general high level arguments that apply to many things. Most features of the project are open to modification after early experimentation.
There will be principally two audiences: policy makers and philanthropists, the latter including effective altruists and foundations. GPP has some access to moderately senior government and civil service policy people and are experimenting with the difficulty of pushing for high impact policies.

Research areas

Research topics will be driven by a combination of importance and comparative advantage. GPP is likely to focus on prioritizing broad areas rather than narrower interventions, though these things are closely linked. It is good to keep an eye on object level questions to ensure that you are thinking about things the right way.
Owen is interested in developing frameworks for comparing things. This can produce value both in their own evaluations and through introducing metrics that others want to use, and so making proposals more comparable in general.

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Trading in quantitative hedge funds (for earning to give)

For someone with strong quantitative skills, we think this represents one of the best career opportunities available. The pay is exceptionally good enabling earning to give, you can develop technical skills valued in academia or technology, and the work is satisfying. We’ve seen numerous cases of mathematicians taking this path and being highly satisfied. The main caveat is that the industry faces many risks – these activities could become unprofitable due to regulation or competition – so it’s important to make sure you also build strong career capital.

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Global priorities research

Since publishing this profile, there has been further research on this cause. See our newer profile of the area.

What is this cause?

Global priorities research is activity aimed at working out which causes, interventions, organisations, policies, etc. do the most to make the world a better place. Organisations and projects within this cause include some policy think-tanks and some parts of economics. Within prioritisation research, we think the most high-priority area is long-run-focused cause-prioritisation. That is, research aimed at working out which causes do the most to make the world a better place in the long-run if we add more resources to them. Note that this research need not consist of detailed economic modelling. Global priorities research can also involve down-to-earth projects like investigating room for more funding or aggregating expert opinion. Organisations within the cause include the Copenhagen Consensus, GiveWell Labs, and the Global Priorities Institute.

Why do we think it’s high-priority?

We think global priorities research is a highly effective cause, because: (i) we think there are likely to be large differences in the effectiveness of different causes, (ii) people don’t have a good understanding of these differences, and (iii) without a better understanding, society is unlikely to take the best opportunities to do good. We also think working on this cause offers high value of information. Since there hasn’t been a large systematic attempt to evaluate causes before,

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Party politics

This is a very high-potential, though very competitive and high-risk path that can enable you to make a big difference through improving the operation of government and promoting important ideas. If you’re highly able, could tolerate being in the public eye and think you could develop a strong interest in politics, then we recommend learning more about this career to test your suitability.

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Founding effective nonprofits (international development)

If you have gained expertise in a relevant area of international development, there are opportunities to found a nonprofit that seeks to efficiently and transparently implement an evidence-backed intervention which is not already the focus of an existing nonprofit. Organisations like this have the potential to receive tens of millions of dollars from funders like the Gates Foundation and GiveWell within a couple of years, achieving a large impact.

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Found a tech startup

Technology entrepreneurship is a very high-potential path, offering good career capital, with a chance of both high earnings and large direct impact. Overall, we think more people should try this path. However, it’s also one of the most difficult paths, and only suits a relatively small number of people. Consider this career if you think you can develop strong technical skills, as well as the ability to deal with high risk of failure, work very long hours and do something unconventional.

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Foundation influence interview with Kerry Vaughan

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Introduction

Kerry Vaughan was a member of the Laura and John Arnold Foundation (LJAF) – a major strategic foundation with over $1.5B in assets – for 3 years and served as the manager of the technology and innovation group. Kerry is also a PhD candidate in philosophy with a specialization in ethics. We spoke with Kerry as part of some compensated research he was doing for 80,000 Hours about the impact one can have working at a foundation.

Summary

  1. The typical annual budget per employee at major foundations is $2 million. Each program officer oversees a budget of about $10 million.
  2. The typical program officer is intelligent and well-educated, and many have graduate degrees.
  3. The board of the foundation typically picks the cause areas and must approve each project. It seems difficult for program officers to influence which causes are supported. However, program officers can influence which projects are funded by selecting which non-profits get presented.

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How to influence policy? An interview with Owen Barder of the Center for Global Development

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Introduction

We recently interviewed Owen Barder to find out about making a difference through careers in policy.

The interview was conducted in person. Below we summarize the key messages of the conversation, followed by some key excerpts which have been edited and reorganized for clarity.

In summary, Owen told us:

  • How influence over policies works in the UK political system. In his experience the partnership between ministers, back-bench MPs and civil servants is one in which they all have an important role to play and they all depend on each other to achieve success. In addition, there is a complex ecosystem of outsiders that influence policies, which requires a combination of proper research, smart political ideas, effective communication and political leadership to influence policy change.

  • That the most important types of international policies can be divided into three groups: zero-sum policies in which there is a short-run trade-off between the interests of rich countries and poor countries (eg aid transfers); win-win policies which would benefit rich countries and poor countries (eg trade liberalisation); and fostering global public goods (eg R&D and global institutions).

  • Students interested in any career field dealing with the developing world should strongly consider traveling to and living in the developing world for some period of time. For those particularly interested in getting involved in politics, becoming a special advisor is one clear pathway, but transitions to the civil service or politics later in life are possible.

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Careers in journalism – an interview with Larissa MacFarquhar

Larrisa5

At the recent Good Done Right conference, I had the opportunity to speak with Larissa MacFarquhar about careers in journalism.

Larissa is a journalist at the New Yorker, and next year will release Strangers Drowning, which explores the lives of those who dedicate themselves to helping others, and features a chapter on effective altruism.

The following is a couple of notes on my key takeaways from our conversation, which were run past Larissa before publishing.

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Good Done Right: audio recordings now online

This July saw the first academic conference on effective altruism. The three-day event took place at All Souls College, one of the constituent colleges of the University of Oxford. The conference featured a diverse range of speakers addressing issues related to effective altruism in a shared setting, including the CEO of JPAL, Derek Parfit, Nick Bostrom, Larissa MacFarquhar of the New Yorker, and many of our donors and supporters. It was a fantastic opportunity to share insights and ideas from some of the best minds working on these issues.

I’m very pleased to announce that audio recordings from most of the talks are now available on the conference website, alongside speakers’ slides (where applicable). I’m very grateful to all of the participants for their fantastic presentations, and to All Souls College and the Centre for Effective Altruism for supporting the conference.

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What does economics tell us about replaceability?

Introduction

‘Replaceability’ has become a core concept in discussions of career choice among Effective Altruists (EAs) – put simply, people should not simply consider the ‘direct impact’ from doing a job, but instead the difference in outcomes resulting from taking that job, relative to not taking it. Ben Todd and Seb Farquhar have both written blogs introducing this concept, and the importance of counterfactual reasoning in general (read these first if you’re not familiar with replaceability!); Paul Christiano and Ben Kuhn (among others) have written blogs further exploring the concept, and its various representations and applications. Some Effective Altruists (EAs) have noted that representations of replaceability have varied in their sophistication, and Will MacAskill summarises this nicely as the ‘simple view’, ‘simplistic replaceability’ and ‘correct replaceability’.

‘Correct replaceability’ is particularly nuanced and complicated, and comprises taking into account the full set of counterfactual outcomes not only in your (potential) job, but in any other jobs affected by the employment decision, through knock-on and labour market effects. Given this, and that ‘replaceability’ varies significantly across different industries and jobs, Will MacAskill and Ben Todd asked me to think about what Economics has to tell us about the concept. For clarity, rather than think about the ethical considerations of ‘replaceability’ as a whole, they asked me to answer a sub-question, namely: “according to mainstream economics, if I add myself to the labour pool for job type X (being a doctor, or an aid worker, or a banker), then how many more type X jobs come into being (on average)?”. Although these issues have been discussed before, this blog post is a first attempt at providing a thorough analysis of this question.

Summary

  • I set out the classical, Econ 101 supply and demand model and discuss the assumptions it makes. I argue that this is a useful framework for considering our question, then show how the answer depends crucially on the elasticities of labour supply and demand. Unfortunately, empirical economic research cannot tell us much about these elasticities for individual industries.

  • There is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ answer to our question – it will vary considerably across different industries and we must try to understand how each industry functions in order to make an informed estimate.
    I believe that the supply and demand framework, or some variant of it, is useful for analysing our question for most jobs and industries, particularly those that are not highly specialised.

  • I discuss how (and whether) this framework should be applied in a few industries, most of which are seen as viable EA career paths. This framework can lead us to some (tentative) conclusions:

    • Entrance into industries with a quantity restriction (e.g. through a limited number of occupational licences) is likely to have (close to) zero impact on the number of jobs in that industry. This may apply to medical school and licensed professional industries (e.g. becoming a barrister in the UK).
    • Entrance into (narrowly defined) industries which require relatively transferable skills is likely to result in less than 0.5 additional jobs in this industry, as (potential) workers can easily substitute into other industries (labour supply is elastic). This may apply to banking and consultancy.
    • Entrance into industries in which (potential) workers have a strong preference to work is likely to result in more additional jobs (perhaps between 0.5 and 1), as workers will not substitute into other industries at such a high rate (labour supply is inelastic). This may apply to jobs in the charity sector.
    • In highly specialised industries/jobs, applying this framework may not be appropriate, as the hiring process will not resemble a competitive market. This may apply, for example, to taking a job with Givewell, who likely follow a process more akin to ‘threshold hiring’.In this case, it seems likely that taking this job may increase the number of overall jobs by close to 1.
  • This post only discusses one aspect of replaceability, and does not consider other issues related to the (direct) impact of a job, effects on the quality of employees, or long term effects of a job, such as creating social value.

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Interview with Caroline Fiennes about opportunities in effective philanthropy

Introduction

We recently interviewed Caroline Fiennes to find out about her ideas on opportunities to make a difference promoting effective philanthropy, and more about her organisation, Giving Evidence. The aim was to both inform our strategy as an organisation, and find opportunities for people who are interested in leading a career in this area.

The interview was conducted via phone call. Below we summarise the key messages of the conversation, followed by some key excerpts, which have been edited and reorganised for clarity.

In summary, Caroline told us:

  • Billions of pounds are donated to charity in the UK each year, but there’s little evidence which can inform donors’ decisions about where to donate. Hence, this money probably doesn’t have as much impact as it could.
  • One intervention would be to set up something like Charity Navigator for the UK, ideally rating charities both on organisation quality (as Charity Navigator does) and on the strength of the evidence behind the interventions they implement. There are many people interested in taking this project forward, but it’s difficult to raise money for it.
  • Another intervention is creating a platform to publicly collect and share the monitoring and evaluation data that charities already produce. Over a billion pounds is spent on monitoring and evaluation each year, but it seems that only about two percent of the studies get shared. Giving Evidence recently raised funding to explore how to create a system for sharing evidence in the UK criminal justice sector.

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The payoff and probability of obtaining venture capital

Venture capital has facilitated the growth of many companies including Apple, Google and Facebook. But is venture capital a key to success for most startups? In this post, we answer three component questions:

  1. What are the likely outcomes for companies backed by venture capital?

  2. What fraction of companies attract venture capital?

    a) How many startups and venture capital deals are there?

    b) What proportion of applicants to venture capitalists say they accept?

  3. How much work is it to apply for venture capital?

We found that:

  • According to the data of Professors Hall and Woodward, the average venture capital-backed founder exits with $5.8 million of equity.

  • Roughly 1% of companies that aspire to obtain venture capital obtain it.

  • Finding out whether you will receive venture capital can take months to years of work.

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Which university has better entrepreneurs?

Some of the most successful companies in recent years have been founded by students of America’s most prestigious universities. The founders of Google and Facebook, from Stanford and Harvard respectively, are prime examples. So which universities have the most successful entrepreneurs? To answer this question, we’ve assessed how many students from each top US university have obtained investment in their startup, how many are worth over $30 million, and how many are worth over $1 billion. This builds upon Jonah Sinick’s work on the wealth of Harvard alumni.

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How to quantify research quality?

Introduction

You may have recently noticed a number appearing under our blog posts, in a little green square. That’s an attempt to better track the quality of our research, which is, as far we know, the first system of its kind.

This post explains why we added it, how it works, who does the ratings, and its benefits so far.

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What is the average net worth of Stanford entrepreneurs?

In this post we estimate the mean net worth of Stanford alumni who made their wealth primarily through founding startups.

Our estimate is that the mean net-worth of a Stanford alumnus who founded a corporation $10.8 million as of 2013.

The reason we are interested in making this estimate is because it fits in with a larger research project to into entrepreneurship, and within that project, into the wealth that can be gained by becoming an entrepreneur.

In this post, we estimate the total net worth of Stanford alumni who have founded corporations then we estimate the total number of Stanford alumni who have founded corporations. We then arrive at our estimate by dividing the total net worth of Stanford alumni founders by the total number of Stanford alumni founders. We close with some caveats and qualifications to our estimate.

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Increasing your earnings as a doctor

Making a difference to patient’s lives is a gratifying part of medical work. However, an investigation by Dr Gregory Lewis suggests that doctors may be able to make a greater improvement to people’s lives through their donations than through their practice. In part, this is because the potentially large impact of charitable donations. For instance, research by GiveWell has shown that it’s likely to be possible to save a life for less than $10,000. This raises the question ‘how can doctors increase their earnings?’.

In this post, we explore whether doctors can improve their earnings by:

  1. Moving to a different country.
  2. Choosing a highly-paid specialty.
  3. Pursuing locum (contract) shifts.

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