How much do people pursuing earning to give actually give?
Introduction
The purpose of this document is to estimate:
1. How much do people pursuing earning to give donate, and how much can we expect them to in the immediate future?
2. How much more giving has 80,000 Hours caused?
The second part fits into our upcoming impact evaluation.
Summary
How much do people pursuing earning to give donate?
- We estimate there’s at least 100 people pursuing earning to give in the effective altruism community, based on survey data from the effective altruist organisations.
- From our own surveys, we’ve found 39 people pursuing earning to give whose career plans have been changed by 80,000 Hours.
- A random sample of ten of these 39 reported total donations to high impact and meta-charities over the last three years of £210k.
- The top three donors we know among the group of 39 gave £230k over the last three years.
- The members of the random sample of ten estimate they will donate £1.6m over the next three years to high impact charities and meta-charities. The top five donors we know expect to donate £2.1m over the next three years. If a significant number continue earning to give, donations will be substantially higher after 2016 due to rapid expected earnings growth.
- The majority of the donations are expected to be to effective altruist organisations, followed by GiveWell recommended charities.
- The estimates are complicated by: (i) the difficulty forecasting salary (ii) the chance of mass drop outs from earning to give (iii) biases in reporting (iv) dependence upon a couple of individuals, who account for a large fraction of the donations.
- Overall, our best guess estimate is that the group of 39 has donated £230k – £400k over the past three years, and will donate about £2m over the next three years (with an 80% confidence interval of £500k – £4m).
- The entire earning to give community of around 100 is likely to be donating about twice as much.
How much more giving has 80,000 Hours caused?
- We asked the random sample of ten from among the group of 39 to estimate how much of their expected giving to effective charities is due to 80,000 Hours. On average, they estimated 30%.
- We searched the group of 39 for the donors who attributed the most donations over the next three years to 80,000 Hours’ influence. Collectively, the top five attribute £565k. More detail on each individual is in the Appendix.
- These estimates are complicated by all the issues that complicate the overall estimates of donations, plus additional biases and the difficulty of separating our influence from the rest of the effective altruism community.
- Based on the survey data and these considerations, our overall estimate is that 80,000 Hours has caused £50k of donations over the past three years. We expect to cause £500k of donations over the next three years, and substantially more after that, although our estimates are highly uncertain. The increase over the next three years is because more of the community will soon start work, and others are expected to see rapid salary growth during their first years of employment.